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Research Article: Development and validation of a tool to predict high-need, high-cost patients hospitalised with ischaemic heart disease

Date Published: 2023-09-26

Abstract:
Objective To develop and validate a tool to predict patients with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) at risk of excessive healthcare resource utilisation. Design A retrospective cohort study. Setting We identified patients through the State of Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (N=586?518) inpatient dataset. Participants Adult patients (at least 40 years of age) admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of IHD between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016. Primary outcome measures We identified patients whose healthcare utilisation is higher than presumed (analysis of residuals) and used logistic regression (binary and multinomial) in estimating the predictive models to classify individual as high-need, high-care (HNHC) patients relative to inpatient visits (frequency of hospitalisation), cost and hospital length of stay. Discrimination power, prediction accuracy and model improvement for the binary logistic model were assessed using receiver operating characteristic statistic, the Brier score and the log-likelihood (LL)-based pseudo-R 2 , respectively. LL-based pseudo-R 2 and Brier score were used for multinomial logistic models. Results The binary logistic model had good discrimination power (c-statistic=0.6496), an accuracy of probabilistic predictions (Brier score) of 0.0621 and an LL-based pseudo-R 2 of 0.0338 in the development cohort. The model performed similarly in the validation cohort (c-statistic=0.6480), an accuracy of probabilistic predictions (Brier score) of 0.0620 and an LL-based pseudo-R 2 of 0.0380. A user-friendly Excel-based HNHC risk predictive tool was developed and readily available for clinicians and policy decision-makers. Conclusions The Excel-based HNHC risk predictive tool can accurately identify at-risk patients for HNHC based on three measures of healthcare expenditures.

Introduction:
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide and accounts for 17.6% of national healthcare expenditures in the USA. 1 In 2017, the estimated total cost of CVD was $555?billion, and it is projected to increase to $1.1?trillion in 2035. 2 Among the various types of CVD, coronary heart disease, or ischaemic heart disease (IHD), is the most prevalent and is responsible for approximately 20% of deaths in patients younger than 65 years old. 3 The disease and economic burden associated with IHD…

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