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Research Article: Estimation of non-health gross domestic product (NHGDP) loss due to COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India

Date Published: 2023-10-31

Abstract:
Objectives The state of West Bengal witnessed a significant surge of COVID-19 in all three waves. However, there is a gap in understanding the economic loss associated with COVID-19. This study estimates future non-health gross domestic product (NHGDP) losses associated with COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India. Setting Various open domains were used to gather data on COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal and the aforementioned estimates. Primary and secondary outcome measures The NHGDP losses were evaluated using the cost-of-illness approach. Future NHGDP losses were discounted at 3%. Excess death estimates by the WHO and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) were used. Sensitivity analysis was carried out by varying discount rates and average age of death (AAD). Results 21?532 deaths in West Bengal from 17 March 2020 to 31 December 2022 decreased the future NHGDP by $0.92?billion. Nearly 90% of loss was due to deaths occurring in the age group of 30 years and above. Majority of the NHGDP loss was borne by the 46–60 years age group. NHGDP loss/death was $55,171; however, the average loss/death declined with rise in age. Based on the GBD and WHO excess death estimates, the NHGDP loss increased to $9.38?billion and $9.42?billion, respectively. When the lower age interval is considered as AAD, the NHGDP loss increased to $1.3?billion. At 5% and 10% discount rates, the losses reduced to $0.767?billion and $0.549?billion, respectively. Conclusions Results from the study suggest that COVID-19 contributed to a major economic loss in West Bengal. The mortality and morbidity caused by COVID-19, the substantial economic costs at individual and population levels in West Bengal, and probably across India and other countries, is another economic argument for better infection control strategies across the globe to minimise the impact of COVID-19.

Introduction:
With the COVID-19 pandemic, economies worldwide have faced several challenges in the form of the collapse of public health systems, employment, food availability and accessibility. The socioeconomic disruption caused by the pandemic is manifesting itself in the form of extreme poverty. 1 The direct impact of the pandemic has been observed across various forms such as decline in domestic consumption, savings and investment. The indirect effects are on future business activity, and decline in tourism and business…

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