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Research Article: Age as a key predictor of 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective cohort study

Date Published: 2026-01-26

Abstract:
Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) in patients with liver cirrhosis is a frequent and often fatal event. This study aimed to thoroughly characterize the relationship between patients’ age and 6-week mortality. We sought to identify specific risk thresholds and key modifying factors to refine clinical risk stratification. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 878 patients with liver cirrhosis and AGIB admitted to the Emergency Room at Beijing You’an Hospital. Patients were stratified into age-based tertiles for descriptive analysis. To assess the association between age and 6-week mortality, we built three sequential logistic regression models adjusting for key clinical confounders including the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS), using restricted cubic splines (RCS) to capture non-linear effects and identify risk thresholds. Subgroup analyses and formal tests for interaction were performed to evaluate the consistency of the age-related risk across different clinical scenarios. The 6-week mortality rate was highest in the oldest age tertile (18.21%). Age emerged as a significant and independent predictor of mortality in all models. The fully adjusted RCS model identified a critical age threshold of approximately 58?years, above which mortality risk increased sharply. The prognostic impact of age was particularly pronounced in male patients and those not receiving endoscopic therapy. Notably, a significant interaction was detected between age and intensive care unit (ICU) admission status ( P for interaction < 0.05). The strong association between increasing age and higher mortality observed in non-ICU patients was attenuated and no longer significant in those admitted to the ICU. A significant association between increasing age and 6-week mortality was identified in patients with Child-Pugh grade C ( p <?0.001), and in medium-risk and high-risk groups (both p =?0.011) when patients were stratified based on GBS. Additionally, in the etiological subgroups, age was a significant predictor of 6-week mortality only in patients with viral cirrhosis ( p =?0.002) and viral/alcoholic cirrhosis ( p =?0.01), but not in patients with other etiologies. Age is a critical independent predictor of 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AGIB, but its prognostic effect varies with the level of care. Specifically, It strongly predicts mortality in non-ICU settings, but not in the ICU. This challenges the uniform view of age as a risk factor and suggests that early transfer to higher-level care such as ICU admission may reduce age-related risk in this vulnerable population.

Introduction:
Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) in patients with liver cirrhosis is a frequent and often fatal event. This study aimed to thoroughly characterize the relationship between patients’ age and 6-week mortality. We sought to identify specific risk thresholds and key modifying factors to refine clinical risk stratification.

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