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Research Article: Neutrophil-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio as a novel biomarker for prognosis in anti-NMDAR encephalitis: a retrospective cohort analysis

Date Published: 2026-01-28

Abstract:
To investigate the correlation between the neutrophil-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio (NAR) and disease severity, long-term prognosis, and risk of relapse in patients with anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis. This study included 125 patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis as a retrospective cohort. Baseline clinical, laboratory, and imaging data was collected. Spearman’s correlation analysis was used to evaluate correlations between NAR, disease severity, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze independent associations between NAR and poor prognosis and recurrence, respectively. The predictive performance of NAR was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Mediation analysis was used to explore potential pathways of action. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed to verify the reliability of the results. The final modified Rankin’s score (mRS) score and recurrence rate were significantly higher in the high-NAR group than in the low-NAR group (both p <?0.05). NAR significantly and positively correlated with the initial mRS score ( r =?0.308, p <?0.001) and CRP level ( r =?0.486, p <?0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that NAR was an independent risk factor for poor prognosis (OR?=?1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02–1.38, p =?0.026) and recurrence (Hazard ratio (HR)?=?1.13, 95% CI: 1.02–1.24, p =?0.017). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for predicting poor prognosis with NAR was 0.724, the optimal cutoff value was 10.34, and the specificity was 92.2%. Mediation analysis showed that disease severity partially mediated the relationship between NAR and prognosis (effect rate, 41.7%). NAR is an independent predictor of poor disease prognosis and risk of recurrence in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. Its high specificity helps identify high-risk patients early and accurately, giving this biomarker long-term prognostic value.

Introduction:
Anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis is one of the most common types of autoimmune encephalitis ( 1 ). It is more common in young people, with a relatively higher proportion of female patients ( 1 ). The clinical manifestations are complex and diverse, such as mental and behavioral abnormalities, epileptic seizures, and consciousness disorders. It can even be life-threatening in severe cases ( 1 ). Although patient prognosis has improved overall with the widespread use of immunotherapy,…

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